fajar-ramadhan
The United States’ latest sanctions on Iran, announced under the guise of "Operation Economic Outcast," are facing a strong headwind as countries like Pakistan and China have declared their intent to defy the measures. These stringent economic sanctions, outlined by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on August 24, 2026, are billed as the "toughest sanctions in history" and are aimed at imposing "the greatest coordinated economic isolation in the history of the world."
Despite the aggressive stance taken by the Trump administration, which President Donald Trump himself labeled as "ECONOMIC D-DAY," the strategy appears to be faltering. Pakistan's announcement that it will not comply with the sanctions and will continue trading with Iran follows a similar declaration from China. These actions suggest that the US' economic pressure may not be as effective as intended.
Historically, economic sanctions have not been successful in toppling governments determined to withstand them. While sanctions can lead to the impoverishment of populations and empower security services, they do not necessarily lead to the collapse of regimes. This is a critical consideration given that the current strategy seems to be aimed at starving Iran into submission.
The US also proposes to remove Iranian oil exports from a global market that has already lost a fifth of its oil supply due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This move could deepen a stagflationary shock already being felt in Europe, Japan, and other US allies, and would force these nations to enforce sanctions that could throttle their own economies.
Furthermore, the sanctions are particularly targeted at China, which purchases more than 80 percent of Iran's oil exports. The US' threat to sanction the Bank of China or the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China could lead to a significant retaliation from Beijing. China has demonstrated its willingness to respond to US tariffs with measures that have had tangible impacts on American and European industries, such as the imposition of export licensing on heavy rare earths in April 2025.
The timing of Bessent's announcement is particularly contentious, coming just over two months before China's expanded rare earth regime returns and weeks before Chinese leader Xi Jinping is due to visit Washington. This situation appears to be a trap of the US' own making, as Beijing has made its opposition to the sanctions clear.
The legality of the US sanctions is also under question. Article 2(4) of the UN Charter prohibits the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, and the US' actions seem to contravene this principle. The US has also shown a growing trend of withdrawing from international organizations and voting against the majority in UN General Assembly resolutions, suggesting a departure from UN-based multilateralism.
The implications of these actions are not lost on other nations. Around the world, countries are seeking new defense arrangements and are moving away from US dollar-based trade and from holding US treasury debt in their foreign reserves. They are also turning to China's open-weight AI models to meet their AI needs, reducing their reliance on American proprietary models.
The parallels between the US-China rivalry and the Peloponnesian War are striking. The US' taunting of Iran and other countries echoes the Athenian generals' taunts to the people of Melos in 416 BC. However, history has shown that overconfidence can lead to defeat. The US, under the leadership of Trump and Bessent, may be taking a similar risk by underestimating the resilience of its adversaries.
In conclusion, the looming failure of Operation Economic Outcast suggests that the US' aggressive approach to Iran may not achieve its intended objectives. The sanctions are likely to be ineffective, and they may even lead to unintended consequences that could undermine the US' global influence.
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