Ethiopian Forces Seize Mekelle as Tigray Conflict Reignites, Stirring Fears of Wider War

Ethiopian federal forces and allied Tigray Peace Force fighters have taken control of Mekelle, the capital of northern Ethiopia's Tigray region, after the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) withdrew from the city, marking a dramatic escalation in a conflict that had appeared dormant for nearly four years. The TPLF confirmed on Saturday that it had pulled out of Mekelle, stating that its regional administration would temporarily operate from an undisclosed location. Government troops and allied militia entered the city the same day, with a pro-government militia source, a humanitarian worker, and a Mekelle resident all confirming to Reuters on Sunday that federal forces were in full control.

The development carries heavy symbolic and strategic weight, coming less than four years after Addis Ababa and the TPLF signed the Pretoria agreement in November 2022, a deal brokered by the African Union that ended two years of devastating war. That conflict, which raged from 2020 to 2022, is estimated to have killed hundreds of thousands of people, displaced millions, and caused extensive damage to infrastructure and livelihoods across Tigray. The peace deal halted large-scale fighting but left critical issues unresolved, including the status of disputed territories, the return of displaced populations, and the disarmament of Tigrayan forces. Those unresolved matters have now resurfaced with alarming force.

Residents of Tigray are confronting the prospect of renewed suffering. Berihu, a 32-year-old bajaj driver in Shire, northwestern Tigray, described the emotional toll of watching the region descend back into full-scale war. Speaking by phone to Al Jazeera, he said he felt heartbroken knowing that Tigray had returned to the same catastrophic condition. He noted that the people of Tigray had already witnessed what the previous war did to them and now felt as though they were reliving the same ordeal. His account reflects a broader sentiment of exhaustion and dread among civilians who endured the earlier conflict.

The diplomatic framework that was supposed to prevent such a relapse has been steadily eroding. In July, the TPLF declared that the Pretoria agreement had effectively collapsed, accusing the federal government of failing to honor key provisions. Addis Ababa rejected that characterization, insisting it remained committed to the peace process while counter-accusing the TPLF of undermining the agreement. Alongside this political dispute, military tensions mounted, with reports of sporadic clashes and drone strikes in parts of Tigray. Both sides traded accusations over troop movements and apparent preparations for renewed fighting, setting the stage for the current offensive.

In Addis Ababa, the renewed hostilities have generated anxiety far beyond Tigray's borders. Abel, a 30-year-old shopkeeper in the capital, said the fighting had felt remote until explosions were heard in the city. He described waking up to news that his own city had been hit, explaining that while reports of fighting in Tigray can feel distant, explosions in Addis Ababa force people to confront the possibility of broader conflict. Diplomatic sources reported that blasts were heard in several parts of the capital, including near the headquarters of Ethiopia's military. Reuters separately reported that a source linked to an opposition alliance claimed responsibility for drone strikes in Addis Ababa, including against military facilities, though the claim could not be independently verified.

For ordinary Ethiopians, the economic consequences of a widening war loom as large as the security threat. Abel warned that if the conflict expands, ordinary people will bear the brunt of the suffering. His concern underscores how renewed fighting could compound existing economic pressures on a population already grappling with hardship.

Bisrat, a college student in Addis Ababa, said the overnight explosions reinforced his fear that Ethiopia could be sliding into a much wider war. He expressed anxiety that a full-scale conflict would devastate ordinary people and said he feared seeing his country descend into a situation resembling Sudan. Sudan has been engulfed in war since April 2023, when fighting erupted between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, displacing millions and creating one of the world's worst humanitarian crises. The comparison highlights the regional stakes of Ethiopia's internal strife.

The current conflict also involves a broader coalition of actors than the Tigray war that ended in 2022. The TPLF is now part of a wider opposition alliance that includes armed groups from several parts of Ethiopia, suggesting the fighting could spread across multiple fronts. Indeed, hostilities have already extended into the neighboring Afar region, complicating the security landscape further.

Ethiopia's relations with Eritrea have also deteriorated sharply, adding a dangerous regional dimension. Ethiopian officials have accused Eritrea of meddling in Ethiopia's internal affairs and supporting forces opposed to the federal government. Eritrea has denied those accusations. On Thursday, Ethiopia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced the closure of its embassy in Asmara and declared 10 Eritrean diplomats persona non grata, alleging they were involved in activities threatening Ethiopia's national security. Eritrea responded by announcing it was severing diplomatic relations with Ethiopia, deepening the rupture between the two neighbors.

Inside Mekelle, residents are struggling to grasp what lies ahead after the TPLF's departure. Goitom, a 37-year-old resident, described a period of uncertainty following the withdrawal, with what he characterized as a security vacuum that allowed theft in some areas, including government offices. He recounted hearing gunfire on Friday night without knowing what was happening. By Saturday, Ethiopian federal forces and allied fighters had taken control of key locations, including the airport, according to Goitom. Reuters and The Associated Press also reported that government-aligned forces entered Mekelle after the TPLF pullout. Goitom said it felt like the region was back to square one, noting that people have already seen what war can do to the city and their families and are deeply worried about the future.

The TPLF, however, has framed its withdrawal as a tactical maneuver rather than a surrender. In a statement issued on Saturday, the group said it had temporarily moved out of Mekelle and that the regional government would operate from elsewhere. It stated that the decision was intended to prevent further destruction in the city and indicated that its forces would continue the conflict from other positions. This suggests that the fighting is far from over.

For the federal government, the capture of Mekelle represents a significant strategic and symbolic victory. It puts the city once again at the center of a conflict that has already reshaped Ethiopia's political and humanitarian landscape. The takeover also raises urgent questions about the protection of civilians, the fate of displaced populations, and the possibility of a protracted insurgency.

The renewed conflict has revived painful memories of the 2020–22 war, with residents across Tigray and beyond fearing a return to prolonged violence, mass displacement, and economic ruin. As fighting spreads into new areas and diplomatic ties with Eritrea collapse, the crisis threatens to acquire a wider regional dimension. With key provisions of the Pretoria agreement still unimplemented and trust between the parties shattered, the path back to peace appears more uncertain than at any point since the guns fell silent in 2022. The international community now faces the difficult task of preventing Ethiopia from plunging into another catastrophic war.