Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan Unite Against Ethiopia’s Regional Ambitions in New Alamein Declaration

Four key African leaders convened in Egypt on Sunday to issue a joint declaration addressing the Horn of Africa’s most pressing crises, in a move that appears to directly challenge Ethiopia’s recent foreign policy maneuvers. The quadrilateral summit, held in the coastal city of New Alamein, brought together Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, and Sudanese army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. Their collective statement called for political and peaceful resolutions to the escalating conflicts in Sudan and Ethiopia, while signaling a unified front on contentious issues like Red Sea access and Nile River water rights.

The timing of the summit is significant, as it coincides with a dramatic escalation in Ethiopia’s internal conflict. Just hours before the leaders issued their declaration, Ethiopian federal forces and their allies retook the city of Mekelle, the capital of the Tigray region, from the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). The TPLF, which fought a brutal two-year war with the federal government that ended in a fragile 2022 peace deal, stated it had “temporarily moved out” of the city to “operate from somewhere else.” The renewed fighting involves a seven-group armed alliance against Ethiopian government forces, raising fears of a return to full-scale civil war.

Ethiopian officials have repeatedly accused neighboring Eritrea of directly supporting this rebel alliance, a charge that Eritrea’s Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel denied on Sunday. In a post on X, Gebremeskel countered that Addis Ababa was merely attempting to create a pretext for attacking Eritrea. This exchange underscores the deep mistrust and volatile dynamics between the two nations, which fought a devastating border war from 1998 to 2000 and have remained bitter rivals since. The joint declaration from the four leaders, with Eritrea as a signatory, adds a new layer of diplomatic pressure on Ethiopia.

A central pillar of the declaration focuses on the Red Sea, stating that control of the vital waterway should remain with its coastal states. This is a clear response to landlocked Ethiopia’s recent pursuit of sovereign sea access and a naval presence, a policy that has alarmed its neighbors. Somalia’s President Mohamud, speaking to Al Jazeera on Saturday, offered a nuanced position, stating that Mogadishu does not object to Ethiopia securing commercial access through Somali ports, but only if such an arrangement is negotiated directly with Somalia. This distinction between commercial access and sovereign control highlights the complexity of the region’s maritime tensions.

The declaration also waded into the long-running dispute over the Nile River, with Egypt and Sudan warning against “unilateral measures” that harm downstream states. This is a direct reference to Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which Cairo and Khartoum have long viewed as an existential threat to their water supplies. The filling and operation of the massive dam have been a source of intense diplomatic friction for years, with Egypt and Sudan demanding a legally binding agreement on water flow before the dam becomes fully operational. By including this warning, the four leaders are reviving a critical point of contention that had recently taken a backseat to security crises.

The summit also addressed the catastrophic civil war in Sudan, which has been raging since April 2023 between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The joint declaration backed Sudan’s military-led government and called for a political process led by Sudanese parties, effectively endorsing General al-Burhan’s leadership. This stance is notable given that both Sudan and Ethiopia have accused each other of interfering in Sudan’s internal conflict, further complicating the regional security landscape. The declaration’s support for the army chief signals a regional alignment that isolates the RSF and potentially undermines efforts by other international actors to broker a more inclusive peace.

The joint declaration did not emerge in a vacuum. Ethiopia has accused Egypt, Eritrea, and Sudan of backing the armed alliance fighting its government, a claim that officials from all three countries have denied. Earlier on Sunday, President el-Sisi framed the gathering’s purpose as addressing cross-border challenges through “a dialogue, not confrontation.” This diplomatic language, however, belies the underlying strategic realignment taking place. The four nations appear to be forming a loose coalition to counter what they perceive as an increasingly assertive and destabilizing Ethiopian foreign policy under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.

For Egypt, the summit represents a diplomatic victory in its long-standing campaign to internationalize the Nile dam dispute. By securing support from Eritrea, Somalia, and Sudan, Cairo has successfully broadened the coalition opposing Ethiopia’s unilateral actions on the river. For Eritrea, the declaration offers a platform to counter Ethiopian accusations of meddling and to assert its own security interests in the region. Somalia, meanwhile, is balancing its desire for regional stability with its own complicated relationship with Ethiopia, which has included past security cooperation but also recent tensions over port deals.

The implications of this joint declaration are profound. It effectively formalizes a bloc of nations that share concerns about Ethiopia’s regional ambitions, whether regarding the Red Sea, the Nile, or its internal conflicts. This could lead to increased diplomatic isolation for Addis Ababa and potentially embolden the armed groups fighting its government. Conversely, it risks further entrenching regional divisions and could escalate tensions, particularly between Ethiopia and Eritrea, where a new conflict remains a distinct possibility. The swift retaking of Mekelle by federal forces suggests Ethiopia is currently prioritizing military solutions over dialogue, a stance that directly contradicts the declaration’s call for peaceful resolutions.

In the broader context of African geopolitics, this summit highlights the limitations of continental bodies like the African Union in resolving such complex, multi-layered disputes. The formation of this ad-hoc quadrilateral group suggests that regional powers are increasingly taking matters into their own hands, forming strategic alliances outside traditional frameworks. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether this declaration remains a symbolic statement of intent or translates into concrete action, such as coordinated diplomatic pressure, economic measures, or even military support for opposing sides in the various conflicts.

Ultimately, the New Alamein declaration serves as a stark warning to Ethiopia that its neighbors are united in their opposition to its current trajectory. It reframes the regional conversation away from Ethiopia’s internal security concerns and toward a collective demand for adherence to international norms on water rights and territorial sovereignty. As fighting continues in Tigray and the war in Sudan grinds on, the four leaders have signaled that they will no longer stand by as bystanders. The ball is now in Addis Ababa’s court to respond, and the path it chooses will determine whether the Horn of Africa descends further into a multifaceted regional war or steps back from the brink toward a tense but stable coexistence.