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Spanish intelligence authorities issued specific warnings regarding prospective large-scale border incursions into the North African enclave of Ceuta shortly before tens of thousands of individuals crossed from Morocco in late July, according to recently declassified government files.
The release of the 40 intelligence files on Wednesday comes during a period of sustained public frustration, marked by near-constant street protests in Ceuta. Demonstrators have criticized the national government's handling of the emergency and raised serious questions regarding the actions and responsibility of neighboring Moroccan security apparatuses.
Among the key revelations in the declassified cache is an alert dispatched on July 29 by Spain’s National Intelligence Center (CNI). The agency sent a direct notification via WhatsApp to the Spanish central government’s local delegation in Ceuta, warning of coordinated calls circulating across social media platforms that urged an organized assault on the border fence and perimeter waters scheduled for the following evening.
Intelligence operatives explicitly underlined the significant reach of these digital mobilization efforts in their communication. The agency noted the existence of two distinct social media collectives boasting an aggregate following of roughly 180,000 users, presenting these metrics to convey the alarming scale of the impending movement.
In parallel with its internal communications, the CNI also shared intelligence with Moroccan security agencies, specifically notifying the DGST and DGED on July 29. The Spanish agency alerted its Moroccan counterparts to plans by migrants to breach the perimeter by scaling border fences or swimming around maritime barriers, noting that organizers appeared intent on capitalizing on Morocco's national Throne Day celebrations on July 30.
Despite these bilateral exchanges, a staggering influx materialized across July 30 and July 31, during which more than 72,000 migrants and asylum seekers crossed into the small coastal enclave, creating an unprecedented administrative and humanitarian crisis for Spanish authorities.
Facing sharp criticism following the document release, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez pushed back against assertions that officials had ignored clear advance notice of a catastrophe on such an extraordinary scale.
Sanchez defended his administration's posture in a post published on the social platform X, acknowledging that various institutions were actively tracking the online campaign. However, the prime minister maintained that the monitoring data in no way predicted, nor could have been reasonably construed to forecast, the immense volume, nature, or likelihood of the mass rush that subsequently unfolded.
The declassified material also sheds light on the internal evaluations of Morocco's conduct during the incident. A CNI briefing compiled in the middle of the day on July 30 concluded that Moroccan authorities were very likely not actively orchestrating or encouraging the migration wave, but had nonetheless responded in a notably passive and negligent manner.
According to the intelligence assessment, Moroccan security personnel failed to execute a proactive operational strategy once control of the border zone began slipping, deploying only a small number of riot containment units to manage the escalating crowds.
The documents further recorded that substantial crowds were already gathering along the shoreline on the evening of July 29, awaiting the opportunity to plunge into the sea to reach Spanish territory. While Moroccan police and gendarmerie forces increased their visibility, the reinforcement proved inadequate to restrain the crowds, allowing hundreds of people to swim across the border before the primary surge.
These intelligence findings contrast with earlier internal police reports leaked in July that alleged complete permissiveness by Moroccan forces, though Sanchez has repeatedly insisted there is no proof that Moroccan officials deliberately plotted the border crisis. The Moroccan government has not provided immediate public comment regarding the newly released files.
More than a month after the massive crossings, the territorial administration continues to grapple with the aftermath. Official central government figures show that around 5,000 migrants and asylum seekers, including 1,200 unaccompanied children, remain in Ceuta. Local municipal leaders, however, estimate the lingering population to be as high as 10,000 people, placing immense pressure on a city whose resident population stands at around 84,000.
The severe strain on local housing and social infrastructure has forced some individuals to remain without shelter, prompting the central administration in Madrid to allocate $357 million in financial assistance to manage accommodation and emergency relief.
The revelation of the pre-crisis intelligence warnings has intensified domestic political pressure on the governing coalition. Parliamentary opposition leaders have seized upon the declassified files to argue that the administration was negligent in safeguarding national borders.
Ester Munoz, speaking as a parliamentary representative for the conservative Popular Party, condemned the government's inaction, charging that executive authorities were fully informed of the impending movement and must therefore bear direct accountability for the massive influx that overwhelmed the enclave.
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