Three Years On, Israel's Military Might Has Failed to Deliver Its Gaza Goals

Three years after the October 7 attack that shattered the image of the Israeli army as an invincible force, Israel has unleashed nearly the full weight of its military arsenal on Gaza. Yet, according to analysts and a mounting body of evidence, overwhelming firepower has failed to translate into the political outcomes Israeli leaders promised. The measure of military success, critics argue, cannot be the number of people killed or the scale of destruction, but whether the conflict has ended on terms that serve the stated political objectives. By that benchmark, Israel appears far from victory.

The human toll has been staggering. More than 74,000 Palestinians have been killed and over 180,000 injured, according to figures cited in the source article. The entire population has been starved, the healthcare system destroyed, the education system devastated, and most of Gaza's life-sustaining infrastructure — including water treatment and desalination plants and the electricity grid — wiped out. The Israeli army did not only target military positions and fighters; it set out to punish the civilian population through massacres and mass destruction, a campaign that has drawn widespread international condemnation.

From the outset, the Israeli government made its aims clear: free the captives, eliminate the Palestinian resistance, impose security control over Gaza, and establish an alternative administration. It also tacitly signaled a desire to prepare the ground for the eventual expulsion of Palestinians. Three years into the carnage, none of these goals has been fully realized, and the gap between military capability and political achievement has only widened.

On the captives issue, the failure is stark. Of the roughly 250 people taken to Gaza, the Israeli army managed to free just eight and recovered the bodies of another 12. It shot dead at least three and killed an unknown number of others during bombing operations. The vast majority — both dead and alive — were released only after intense diplomacy and negotiations with Hamas. The Israeli army's own point man on the captives issue recently acknowledged that all October 7 captives could have been returned a year earlier and that some of those who died could have been saved, a striking admission that overwhelming military power failed in this file.

Eliminating the Palestinian resistance has likewise proven elusive. Despite extensive military operations and the assassination of a large number of its leaders, Israel has been unable to end the presence of the resistance in Gaza. Hamas continues to control parts of the Strip, even while facing continuing Israeli bombing campaigns and attacks by pro-Israel Palestinian militias. Israel has now been forced to negotiate Hamas's disarmament rather than achieve it by force — a significant reversal that underscores the limits of military pressure.

Territorially, the Israeli army has occupied about 60 percent of Gaza but has stopped short of a massive operation to take over the rest. According to the source analysis, this restraint reflects an understanding that the political, humanitarian, and military costs of such a decision would be too high. The prospect of full reoccupation carries the risk of even greater international isolation and the potential collapse of remaining diplomatic support.

Efforts to construct an alternative administration have also largely failed. Israel and its foremost ally, the United States, invested heavily in creating the Board of Peace and a plan for reconstruction and governance that excludes the United Nations. But the administrative committee for Gaza has not entered the territory to take over governing, and the humanitarian provisions of the agreement remain unimplemented. The vision of a post-Hamas Gaza governed by a pliant alternative body has not materialized.

The hope that reducing Gaza to an apocalyptic landscape would push the population into such despair that it would abandon its cause and rights has been quashed. Israel has tried to push Palestinians to leave through repeated displacement, starvation, the destruction of homes and infrastructure, and various schemes for "voluntary departure." Destruction has made the Strip unlivable, but the majority of Palestinians have made clear they intend to stay. There have even been returnees from Egypt, a further sign that displacement efforts have backfired.

At this point, Israel faces a "day after" problem in Gaza. Its military can raze the Strip but cannot build a new political reality that satisfies Israeli aims. The continued presence of Palestinians, the persistence of resistance, and the growing political and international prominence of the Palestinian cause have demonstrated that the Israeli approach of brutal aggression has failed. Military power can impose a temporary reality, but it cannot produce political legitimacy on its own — and worse, it can destroy legitimacy, which is exactly what has happened to the Israeli government and the Israeli project as a whole.

The diplomatic consequences have been severe. Last month, when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the UN General Assembly, representatives of the majority of UN members walked out of the hall. Netanyahu himself faces an arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity. These developments signal a dramatic erosion of Israel's international standing, even among some of its traditional partners.

Public opinion in key allied nations has turned increasingly negative. A Pew Research survey across 36 countries found that 67 percent of adults view Israel unfavorably. In the United States, 60 percent hold negative views; in Germany, 73 percent; in the United Kingdom, 69 percent; and in France, 68 percent. These figures represent a significant shift in the countries whose governments have provided diplomatic cover and military support for Israel's campaign.

In Washington, the debate over US support for Israel has intensified to the point that a growing number of lawmakers are backing bills that propose curbing military aid or imposing sanctions. While no such legislation has yet become law, the trend reflects growing unease with an open-ended conflict that has produced few tangible gains for Israel and mounting costs for its international reputation.

Taken together, the evidence suggests that Israel's military superiority has not delivered the political victory its leaders promised. The captives were freed mainly through negotiation. Hamas remains a force in Gaza. Full territorial control has not been achieved. An alternative administration has not taken root. And the Palestinian population has not been expelled. Instead, Israel finds itself more isolated, its leaders facing international legal jeopardy, and its long-term security arguably diminished rather than enhanced. Three years of mass killing, in short, have not meant winning.