Oil Flows Through Strait of Hormuz Rebound to 80% of Pre-War Levels as Iran's Strategic Grip Weakens

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has staged a significant recovery in recent weeks, with crude and petroleum flows now approaching 80 percent of pre-war volumes, according to tanker-tracking data. The rebound marks a notable shift in one of the world's most critical energy chokepoints, where Iran had effectively shut down shipping in retaliation for US-Israeli attacks earlier this year. While the recovery offers some relief to global energy markets, analysts caution that conditions remain far from normal and that Tehran's leverage over the waterway has not disappeared entirely.

The latest figures from commodity analytics firm Kpler show that Middle East crude exports climbed to an estimated 16.328 million barrels per day in September, the highest level recorded since the war began on February 28. Flows through the Strait of Hormuz itself were projected to reach approximately 9.719 million barrels per day during the month. Saudi Arabia accounted for much of the increase, with its exports jumping from 2.446 million barrels per day in August to roughly 5.4 million barrels per day in September.

Despite the improvement, the numbers remain approximately 3.2 million barrels per day below the 19.513 million barrels per day exported in February, before hostilities erupted. Kpler noted that its data does not include vessels crossing the strait with their tracking systems disabled, suggesting actual traffic could be even higher than reported. Prior to the conflict, an estimated 120 to 140 ships transited the waterway daily, roughly half of them oil tankers carrying about 20 million barrels per day. At the peak of the fighting, that traffic collapsed to as few as two tankers per day after Iran moved to close the strait.

The recovery presents a strategic dilemma for Tehran. Iran has long relied on its ability to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz as a bargaining chip against Washington's military and economic pressure. However, if substantial oil volumes continue flowing through the waterway while Iran itself remains under a US naval blockade that has crippled its own shipping and port operations, the Islamic Republic's negotiating position could erode significantly. The fighting has already severely damaged Iran's heavily sanctioned economy, adding urgency to its efforts to secure a favorable end to the conflict.

Iran has rejected any suggestion that its control over the strait is diminishing. Hossein Mohebbi, a spokesperson for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said on Wednesday that a "military conflict" is still underway in the Strait of Hormuz. He claimed that Iranian forces have been targeting small ships and preventing their passage for an extended period, while asserting that America has not responded. The remarks underscore Tehran's insistence that it retains the capacity to disrupt traffic despite the recent uptick in oil flows.

Security concerns were reinforced on Wednesday when the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center reported that unknown projectiles struck three ships in the waterway a day earlier, including a crude oil tanker. The attack serves as a reminder that the strait remains a dangerous environment for commercial shipping, even as overall traffic volumes recover. Such incidents continue to pose risks to vessels and crews operating in the region.

Experts caution against assuming that normal conditions in the Strait of Hormuz are imminent. Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at Wealth Club, told Al Jazeera that while the fact oil is getting through the strait is encouraging, flows are not yet regarded as completely secure or guaranteed, particularly while the broader conflict remains unresolved. Her assessment reflects a wider consensus that the recovery is fragile and could be reversed if hostilities escalate once more.

Tanker insurance costs remain elevated, adding a financial burden to shipping companies and energy traders. These higher premiums reflect lingering geopolitical risks and the perception that the strait remains vulnerable to disruption. Combined with the unresolved nature of the wider conflict, the elevated insurance costs suggest that Iran's ability to influence the waterway has weakened rather than vanished entirely.

Oil prices provide another indication that Iran has not lost all of its leverage. Brent crude fell 2.6 percent to $102.59 per barrel on Tuesday as traders focused on recovering Middle East exports. Yet despite that decline, the benchmark was still on track for a gain of roughly 13 percent in September. The sustained high prices reflect persistent uncertainty about supply security and the potential for renewed disruptions in the region.

The economic stakes extend beyond the Middle East. Oil prices remain elevated globally, including in the United States, where President Donald Trump faces a crucial midterm election that could see his party lose control of both houses of Congress. High energy costs have historically been a political liability for incumbent administrations, and the persistence of elevated prices could influence voter sentiment in the coming months.

As Iran and the United States work with mediators to end seven months of hostilities, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz has become a barometer for the broader balance of power in the conflict. The increasing traffic suggests that global energy markets are adapting to the disruption, potentially reducing the urgency for Washington to make concessions to Tehran. At the same time, Iran's continued ability to threaten shipping through attacks and its ongoing military posture in the region mean that the waterway remains a potential flashpoint.

The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether the recovery in oil flows continues or stalls. Negotiations aimed at ending the fighting face numerous obstacles, and any breakdown could quickly reverse the gains seen in recent weeks. For now, the data points to a partial restoration of normal trade through the strait, but the underlying geopolitical tensions that made it a battleground remain unresolved. Iran's leverage may be weakening, but it has not disappeared, and the Strait of Hormuz will likely remain a central factor in any final settlement.