Iraq Enters New Security Era as US-Led Coalition Withdrawal Ends Two Decades of Foreign Military Presence

Iraq has formally entered a new chapter in its national security after the last remaining United States forces departed their bases in the country, coinciding with the expiration of the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIL (ISIS). The milestone, confirmed on Wednesday, September 30, 2026, brings to a close a foreign military presence that has shaped Iraqi affairs for more than two decades.

To mark the significance of the moment, Baghdad has designated four "Sovereignty Days," a national holiday running from September 30 through October 3. The celebration is intended to underscore the profound symbolism of the American exit, which Iraqi officials have framed as the restoration of full national control over security matters.

The departure represents the culmination of a two-year phased withdrawal process that was first outlined in a joint Iraq-US statement issued in September 2024. Under that agreement, the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIL was to wind down in two distinct stages, with the first phase requiring an end to combat operations inside Iraq by the end of September 2025 at the latest.

The second stage, which continued until September 2026, was designed to support ongoing operations against ISIL in neighbouring Syria, operating under a mechanism determined by the US-Iraq Higher Military Commission. In January, Iraqi authorities announced that coalition advisers had completed their withdrawal from federal areas, though logistical support for Syria operations was to continue via a base located in Erbil, the primary city of Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdish region.

Wednesday's withdrawal formally concludes Washington's 12-year operation in support of Iraqi forces, a mission that began in 2014 following the rise of ISIL and its sweeping territorial gains across Iraq and Syria. In recent years, US forces had been concentrated in northern Iraq, comprising approximately 2,500 military personnel, alongside a separate presence in Syria.

The scale of the American military footprint in Iraq has fluctuated dramatically over the decades. Following the 2003 invasion, US troop levels peaked at 170,000 during the occupation's height in 2007. Those forces were subsequently withdrawn under President Barack Obama in 2011, only for a later contingent to be invited back in 2014 after ISIL's emergence, primarily to provide air support and training to Iraqi forces.

The current withdrawal involves more than just the departure of soldiers. Military equipment, including crucial air defence systems, is also being removed from the country. These US air defences in Erbil had played a significant role in intercepting Iranian ballistic missiles and drones during the ongoing war, raising concerns about the defensive gap their removal might create.

Kurdish military commander Sirwan Barzani told Reuters that Iraq stands to lose three additional capabilities beyond physical hardware: US intelligence, logistical support, and drones. These assets have been integral to surveillance and targeting operations in the region, and their absence could hamper Iraq's ability to monitor and respond to emerging threats.

The concern is most acute in Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdish region, which is administered by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). The KRG's Ministry of Peshmerga Affairs, which oversees Kurdish armed forces and was instrumental in the fight against ISIL, reported that the region has come under more than 1,000 drone and ballistic missile attacks since the US-Israeli war on Iran began on February 28.

KRG Prime Minister Masrour Barzani voiced his unease on Sunday, stating that leaving the Kurdistan region without any defence system is a cause for concern. His own office was targeted in a drone attack last month, which officials claim was launched from Iranian territory, underscoring the tangible nature of the threat facing the region.

Baghdad, however, has sought to project confidence in its own capabilities. Iraqi officials say that many security tasks had already been transferred to national forces well ahead of the deadline. On Monday, Iraqi Air Force commander Lieutenant General Khalid al-Tamimi told state news that no coalition force had carried out any duties inside Iraq since the start of 2026.

Al-Tamimi added that Iraqi drones have replaced coalition aircraft for reconnaissance missions, with the air force now conducting daily aerial surveys of the country. He also highlighted Iraq's independent operation and maintenance of its fleet of F-16 fighters, noting that these aircraft had conducted missions for ten days without outside assistance.

Despite these assertions of self-reliance, the withdrawal raises fundamental questions about Iraq's capacity to manage its security environment independently. The removal of US intelligence and logistical support, combined with the loss of advanced air defence systems, could leave gaps that Iraqi forces may struggle to fill, particularly as regional tensions continue to simmer.