Iran's top diplomat met with Qatari mediators in New York on Monday to press a proposal aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz, even as a senior United States official made clear that no deal to end the war is possible unless Tehran's nuclear programme is put on the table.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said after the meeting that the Qatari side would relay the ideas discussed to Washington, and that he expected to receive a final American answer by Tuesday. He described the encounter as part of an ongoing exchange of messages conducted through Qatari and Pakistani channels, which he said had become "more serious" since Iran formally submitted its proposal.
The Iranian plan, unveiled on Friday at the United Nations General Assembly in New York, asks Washington to unfreeze Iranian assets, dismantle sanctions and end its naval blockade of Iranian ports. Araghchi said those measures could be carried out within four or five days, clearing the way for the strait to reopen and for negotiations on a comprehensive agreement — including the nuclear file — to begin by the seventh day.
President Donald Trump rejected the offer on Saturday, labelling it "unacceptable", a move that has left the diplomatic track uncertain even as indirect contacts continue. Speaking to reporters on Monday, Trump said US officials had also been in touch with mediators but maintained that Washington would ultimately prevail. "We're going to win," he said, adding that the conflict would end "pretty quickly" and that petrol prices would come down once the US prevailed.
According to a US official who spoke to Al Jazeera, the indirect discussions have been "positive and constructive", but the official stressed that any agreement hinges on addressing Iran's nuclear programme. The official said Trump is prepared to ease sanctions and release frozen Iranian funds in return for movement on nuclear issues, noting that Tehran has signalled flexibility but that the two sides remain divided over the sequencing of commitments and who must act first.
The official also voiced doubt about Iranian compliance, accusing Tehran of violating the memorandum of understanding signed in June by firing on commercial vessels. Iran rejects that charge, countering that Washington broke its own commitments by failing to stop Israeli attacks on Lebanon and by pursuing alternative shipping corridors through the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran shut the strait — which before the war carried roughly a fifth of global oil and gas supplies — shortly after the US and Israel launched their offensive on February 28. Iranian attacks on shipping since then have drastically reduced traffic through the waterway, pushing oil prices above $100 a barrel and rattling energy markets worldwide.
There are signs of partial recovery. Crude exports from major Middle Eastern producers climbed in September to 12.8 million barrels per day, the highest level since the war began, according to Reuters, which cited data from the maritime intelligence firm Kpler. That figure nonetheless remains far below the 18.8 million bpd recorded in February, underscoring how far trade has fallen from its pre-war baseline.
Some vessels have resorted to a US military-supervised route close to Oman's coast, sailing at night with tracking systems switched off and transferring oil to tankers waiting outside the strait. Admiral Brad Cooper, who heads US Central Command, said on Saturday that American forces had supported 2,000 transits and more than 1 billion barrels of oil in recent months.
Washington has simultaneously imposed a blockade on Iranian ports and threatened secondary sanctions against airports and companies dealing with Iranian airlines. The United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Oman have already cancelled related flights, a sign of how the confrontation is rippling through regional aviation and trade.
In Tehran, officials struck a defiant tone. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, in a message marking the Iran-Iraq War and Israel's killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in 2024, declared that the era of foreign domination was over. He said the enemy, having absorbed painful blows from Iran's fighters and the "guardians of the Strait of Hormuz", does not dare venture beyond the Arabian Sea, and predicted that the Arabian Sea too would soon be cleared of foreign presence.
Major-General Ali Abdollahi, the armed forces chief of staff, warned that Iran and allied forces would deliver a "decisive and devastating response" to any threat against the country. Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari separately insisted the strait remains closed and said Iranian forces are ready to block enemy forces from entering the country.
The competing statements suggest both sides are positioning themselves ahead of any response from Washington, with Iran seeking sanctions relief and an end to the naval blockade as a precondition for reopening the waterway, and the US demanding concrete progress on nuclear constraints before offering economic concessions. Araghchi said he would leave New York for Tehran within hours, adding that the Qataris "know how to get" any response to him — leaving the next move in Washington's hands.
For global markets, the stakes are considerable. The Strait of Hormuz remains the world's most critical energy chokepoint, and its continued closure keeps upward pressure on crude prices and shipping costs. A breakthrough would ease those pressures; a collapse in talks could deepen a conflict that has already reshaped trade routes and drawn in regional mediators whose influence may prove decisive in the days ahead.
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