Iran Claims Hormuz Strikes Forced US Warships Back as Oil Traffic Rebounds

Iran is asserting that its attacks on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, including United States Navy ships, have succeeded in pushing American warships farther away from the Iranian coastline. According to Iranian state-linked media, US naval vessels that had been positioned near the Iranian port of Chabahar and the entrance to the Gulf of Oman have relocated deeper into the central Arabian Sea, reportedly to evade Iranian missile strikes.

The claims come amid reports in US media that eight US Marines suffered smoke inhalation and possible traumatic brain injuries on September 14 after an Iranian antiship cruise missile targeted their vessel in the Strait of Hormuz. The officials cited in those reports indicated that the ship involved in the attack was not a US Navy vessel. Al Jazeera contacted US Central Command for comment on the reports but received no response.

CENTCOM had previously stated that American ships successfully evaded Iranian ballistic missile attacks earlier in September. The Pentagon had also quietly updated its casualty figures, adding 29 US sailors and eight Marines to its list of war-wounded, bringing the total number of service members injured since the war began on February 28 to 861. At least 19 deaths have been recorded among US forces.

Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei appeared to reference the US naval repositioning in a message published by state media on Monday. He stated that US forces are now refraining from advancing further because of the "painful blows they have suffered" at the hands of Iranian fighters and those he described as the guardians of the Strait of Hormuz. Khamenei warned that whenever US forces have taken such risks, they have brought harm upon themselves, and predicted that the Arabian Sea would soon be emptied of American presence.

Despite Iran's claims of military success, the United States continues to maintain a naval blockade of Iran's southern ports in some form. Washington has also rejected the Islamic Republic's latest proposal for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The ongoing tensions have created a complex situation in which both sides are pursuing pressure tactics while mediators attempt to facilitate further talks.

Tehran has stated it is prepared for both defensive and offensive military action if necessary. Analysts suggest that controlled escalation is the most likely scenario, even though a renewed all-out war is not expected in the immediate future. The situation remains volatile, with both nations signaling resolve while avoiding the kind of full-scale confrontation that would devastate the region.

Maritime law and security expert Ian Ralby told Al Jazeera that Iran will likely continue targeting ships because the strategy has served Tehran's objectives during the conflict. He pointed to the similar approach taken by the Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen, who have conducted attacks in the Red Sea region for nearly three years. Ralby, who serves as president of the good governance nonprofit Auxilium Worldwide, explained that missile and drone strikes have become a means by which a weaker military power can gain significant strategic advantage and impact global markets.

Ralby added that it is fairly certain Iran will continue attacking ships, regardless of whether US personnel are aboard, as part of its broader approach to fighting for its continued existence and for strategic regional hegemony. This assessment suggests that the Strait of Hormuz will remain a flashpoint for the foreseeable future, with implications for global energy markets and international shipping.

The escalating rhetoric from Iranian authorities coincides with a notable increase in energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz in recent weeks. However, the waterway remains far from its pre-war state of unimpeded transit. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Sunday that nearly 13 million barrels of crude were passing through the strait each day. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent offered a higher estimate of 15 to 22 million barrels per day, compared with roughly 20 million barrels daily before the war.

Bessent also claimed on Sunday that Iran was unable to export its own oil through the blockade, leaving it with only about 15 million barrels already stored at sea that could be shipped to China within two weeks. This assertion, if accurate, would represent a significant economic blow to Tehran, which relies heavily on oil revenues to sustain its war effort and domestic economy.

Preliminary data released by Kpler on Monday indicated that crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz were expected to average 7.4 million barrels per day in September. The data and analytics company reported on Friday that 19 tankers transited the strait in the week ending September 27, including 17 very large crude carriers, each capable of carrying two million barrels of oil. These figures suggest that despite the tensions, significant volumes of oil continue to flow through the strategic waterway.

Regional exports, including shipments from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iran, rebounded to 12.8 million barrels per day in September, marking the highest level since the war began. This increase in oil traffic indicates that Gulf states and their international partners have found ways to maintain energy supplies despite the persistent threat of Iranian attacks.

Analysts appearing on Be Vaght-e Iran, a war-focused Iranian state television program that adopts a hardline position, acknowledged that available evidence indicated at least seven million barrels of crude were passing through the Strait of Hormuz daily. They noted that Arab Gulf governments were using shuttle systems to move oil out of the region, with US forces providing protection. Because these operations involved state-backed arrangements, the analysts said, they could avoid relying on international frameworks that Iran might seek to challenge.

The IRGC has continued to insist that the strait remains closed to vessels that do not coordinate passage with Iranian authorities. This position puts Tehran at odds with the reality of increased shipping traffic and creates a potential trigger for further confrontations. The gap between Iran's declared closure of the strait and the actual flow of oil highlights the complexity of the situation and the limits of Iran's ability to enforce its demands.

The war, which began on February 28, has now dragged on for seven months with no clear end in sight. Both Washington and Tehran appear committed to their respective strategies, with the US relying on naval superiority and economic pressure while Iran employs asymmetric tactics to level the playing field. The human cost continues to mount, with hundreds of US service members wounded and at least 19 killed, while Iran's own losses remain unclear.

Mediators are reportedly working to facilitate additional talks, but Washington has signaled confidence in its current pressure tactics. The rejection of Iran's proposal for reopening the Strait of Hormuz suggests the US believes its blockade is achieving its objectives. For its part, Iran appears determined to demonstrate that it can inflict costs on US forces and disrupt global energy supplies, even if it cannot match American military power directly.

As the conflict continues, the Strait of Hormuz remains the central battleground in the US-Iran war. The waterway carries a substantial portion of the world's oil supply, making its status a matter of global economic concern. Both sides understand the stakes and are calibrating their actions accordingly, seeking to gain advantage without triggering a broader conflagration that neither appears to want at this stage.