Iran Accused of Charging Secret Tolls for Hormuz Passage as Oil Exports Defy Blockade

Middle East crude exports have rebounded to levels not seen since before the US-Israel war on Iran erupted in February, even as Tehran continues its attempts to choke off the Strait of Hormuz and strike vessels traversing the vital waterway. The unexpected recovery has puzzled analysts and raised a pressing question: how is oil still flowing so freely through a corridor that Iran claims to control?

According to provisional data from maritime tracking firm Kpler, crude exports from the region exceeded pre-war levels on four separate days during the final week of September, reaching between 19.5 and 22.5 million barrels per day. Before the conflict began, regional exports averaged roughly 18 million bpd. The seven-day average climbed above that benchmark for the first time since fighting started, signalling a remarkable resilience in the face of ongoing hostilities.

The surge has largely been attributed to two factors. First, US naval vessels have been shepherding tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, providing a protective escort against Iranian missile and drone attacks. Second, there has been a marked increase in ship-to-ship transfers, a tactic that allows crude to change hands offshore and reduces the risk of individual vessels being targeted. These workarounds have enabled Gulf producers to keep their oil flowing despite the volatile security environment.

Yet the persistence of high oil prices alongside rising export volumes has confounded simple supply-and-demand logic. If more oil is reaching global markets, prices should theoretically fall. Instead, Brent crude was still trading at approximately $101.59 a barrel on Monday, while US West Texas Intermediate stood only slightly lower. Analysts have pointed to elevated insurance rates — driven by fears of Iranian attacks — and a market pricing in the possibility of a return to full-scale war as explanations for the stubbornly high prices.

But a senior analyst at Kpler last week offered a more controversial explanation. Michelle Brohard, the firm's head of policy and geopolitical risk, suggested that Gulf countries may be paying Iran a toll to guarantee safe passage for their oil through the strait. If true, this would mean Tehran is capturing a significant portion of the value of each cargo, effectively profiting from the very waterway it has threatened to close.

"I suspect there is a toll that's being paid, which is giving these ships safe passage," Brohard said in an interview with energy analyst Rory Johnston. She added that these countries likely recognise the arrangement is unsustainable — both because of their reliance on US escorts and because of the financial cost of handing over what she estimated could be 10 to 20 percent of each cargo's value. "So you're starting to see like what I would call like a race to get out as much as possible, as quickly as possible before the war restarts," she said.

Brohard was careful to present her claim as speculation rather than a conclusion backed by hard evidence, and it has not been independently verified. However, the suggestion is not without precedent. As early as March, the shipping journal Lloyd's List reported that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had already established a "toll booth" system to control vessel traffic through the strait. That report lent credence to the idea that Tehran has been extracting payments from shipping companies or their governments in exchange for safe transit.

The Trump administration has repeatedly stated that Iran will not be permitted to charge a toll under any potential agreement with Washington. The closure of the strait has caused global fuel costs to soar and has tested agricultural sectors across the world, underlining the strategic importance of keeping the waterway open.

Marine trackers continue to report that oil is increasingly finding its way out of the Middle East. In the last week of September, the seven-day average climbed above the roughly 18 million bpd recorded before the war. Kpler noted that crude exports excluding Iran had also recovered to at least 16.5 million bpd as an average over September. The upward trend has continued into October. Iraq's state-owned Oil Tanker Company announced on Saturday that it had transported two million barrels of crude on a very large crude carrier through the Strait of Hormuz — the company's first such operation in decades, according to its director general.

According to Kpler, approximately 40 percent of regional crude now bypasses Hormuz entirely, with most crude crossing the strait changing tankers offshore. Much of this redirected flow moves through pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The export figures also include supplies transported through the Red Sea, which has become an increasingly important alternative route to the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran, however, disputes suggestions that it has lost control of the waterway. Senior IRGC commander Ali Fadavi said on Sunday that only three to four million bpd were travelling along a US-supervised route, describing that amount as "negligible" compared with pre-war traffic. Before the war erupted seven months ago, the strait routinely saw about 125 large commercial vessels a day, including tankers, gas carriers, bulk carriers, and container ships. The discrepancy between Kpler's data and Iran's claims suggests a significant gap in the competing narratives.

Oil prices have eased marginally as exports from the Middle East recover. Last week, the Group of Seven countries announced a decision to release 100 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves, a move aimed at stabilising markets. But crude prices remain significantly higher than pre-war levels, and the underlying tensions show no sign of abating. With US escorts continuing, ship-to-ship transfers expanding, and allegations of secret Iranian tolls swirling, the Strait of Hormuz remains both a critical economic lifeline and a flashpoint that could reignite at any moment.