Ethiopia Accuses Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of Backing Rebels as Fears of Regional War Mount

Ethiopia's military leadership has publicly accused three neighboring countries of supporting armed opposition groups, sharply escalating tensions in the Horn of Africa as fighting intensifies across the country's northern regions. The allegations, made over the weekend by army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula, have deepened concerns that Ethiopia's internal conflict could expand into a broader regional confrontation.

Birhanu characterized the unrest as the work of what he described as Ethiopia's "historical and contemporary adversaries." He singled out Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt by name, claiming Eritrea was serving as a conduit linking those external powers to armed factions operating within Ethiopian territory. The army chief's remarks represent one of the most direct accusations Addis Ababa has leveled at its neighbors since renewed hostilities erupted.

All three accused nations have firmly rejected the allegations. Egyptian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nader Zaki told Al Jazeera that Cairo's approach to foreign relations rests on "full respect for the sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity of states, and noninterference in the internal affairs of other countries." He added that Egypt adheres fully to international law and the United Nations Charter, and opposes any actions that would destabilize regional security.

Major-General Samir Farag, who previously led the Egyptian Armed Forces' Morale Affairs Department, echoed that denial. He told Al Jazeera that the accusations against Egypt are unfounded, noting that interference in the domestic affairs of regional states has never formed part of Egyptian policy.

Sudan's military likewise rejected the claims as "baseless." In a counter-accusation, Khartoum charged Ethiopia with supporting the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, which has been locked in combat with the Sudanese Armed Forces since 2023. Ethiopia has denied those allegations in turn, leaving both sides trading blame amid a deteriorating security environment.

The disputes did not emerge in isolation. Ties between Cairo and Addis Ababa have long been strained by an unresolved disagreement over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, a massive hydropower project on the Blue Nile that Egypt fears could reduce its share of the river's waters. That standoff, which dates back more than a decade, has increasingly spilled into broader competition over regional security, the Red Sea corridor and influence across the Horn of Africa.

Sudan's relationship with Ethiopia has followed a similarly troubled path. Since civil war broke out in Sudan, Khartoum has repeatedly alleged that Addis Ababa has provided training, supplies and territory to the RSF. Meanwhile, Eritrea and Ethiopia, which fought side by side against rebel forces in Tigray during the 2020-2022 war, have seen their relations cool considerably, with Asmara unsettled by Ethiopian efforts to secure access to the Red Sea.

Against this backdrop, some analysts and Ethiopian opposition figures argue that Addis Ababa is invoking foreign conspiracies to generate public support for its national army. Mohamed Selim, deputy chair of the Egyptian parliament's African Affairs Committee, told Al Jazeera he views the accusations as an attempt to divert attention from Ethiopia's domestic difficulties by manufacturing an external enemy and uniting the country behind the government.

Amani al-Tawil, who directs the Africa Programme at the Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, offered a similar assessment, calling the accusations "an understandable attempt to escape from internal crises." She questioned why Egypt would consider military intervention in Ethiopia at this particular moment, given that the two countries have been locked in the dam dispute since 2011. Al-Tawil also pointed to the formation of a new opposition coalition — seven armed groups representing various ethnic communities and regions announced their alliance last week — as a significant challenge to Addis Ababa's authority.

The fighting has spread beyond Tigray into the neighboring regions of Amhara and Afar. Mohammed Hussein, who chairs the Prosperity Party's Afar Region Branch Office, told Al Jazeera that the three regions are home to an estimated combined population of more than 38 million people. Their proximity to the borders with Djibouti and Eritrea, he said, heightens the danger that the conflict could evolve into a regional war.

Ammar Arki, a writer who focuses on Horn of Africa affairs, noted that Ethiopia has at different points blamed Sudan, Egypt and Eritrea for fueling instability within its borders. He suggested the latest accusations may be intended to redirect domestic attention toward an external threat and consolidate support for the federal government.

Arki also issued a caution: the longer Addis Ababa frames its internal crisis as the product of an "external conspiracy," the greater the risk that the conflict crosses Ethiopia's borders — especially if neighboring states adopt the same narrative in response. That dynamic, analysts warn, could transform a national crisis into a wider regional conflagration.