fajar-ramadhan
The ongoing conflict between the United States and Israel against Iran has had a profound impact on global economic sectors, with some industries reaping significant benefits while others suffer substantial losses. Six months into the war, the repercussions are still being felt across the world, affecting everything from energy markets to defense spending.
One of the clear winners in this conflict has been the oil industry. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, combined with Iranian strikes on energy infrastructure in Gulf countries, has sent oil prices skyrocketing. This surge in prices has bolstered the profits of some of the world's largest energy companies.
ExxonMobil, the largest oil company in the US, reported a quarterly profit of $14.5 billion, marking its best quarterly earnings in four years. Chevron, the second-largest US producer, saw a $12 billion profit, the highest in six years. French energy giant TotalEnergies also saw a significant increase, with a profit of $6 billion in the April-June period, up from $3.6 billion last year. British energy companies Shell and BP have also seen their earnings more than double year-on-year.
European energy companies have performed particularly well, with some analysts suggesting they have outperformed their US counterparts. This is due in part to their ability to trade oil and the support they have received from the US, which has helped boost their revenues.
However, not all oil-producing countries have benefited equally. In August, the state-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) reported a 52 percent drop in second-quarter profit to $665 million, citing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as a major factor.
On the flip side, US taxpayers are among the significant losers in this conflict. In late July, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth provided Congress with an estimate putting the cost of the war up to that point at $37.5 billion. However, experts suggest that the true cost is likely to be much higher, potentially reaching $1 trillion, including long-term costs such as repairs to damaged military installations and disability payments for wounded soldiers.
Another winner in this conflict has been the defense industry. The US military has been actively partnering with arms manufacturers on contracts worth tens of billions of dollars since the start of the war. A recent example is the $22.9 billion agreement with RTX Corporation to increase production of Tomahawk cruise missiles used for strikes. The US military has also entered into a $59 billion deal with Lockheed Martin to triple production of Patriot interceptor missiles, which have been heavily depleted against Iranian missile and drone attacks.
Despite the increased demand for armaments, some of the biggest defense firms have seen their stock market performance suffer. Shares of Northrop Grumman have dropped about 25 percent since the start of the conflict, while Boeing has seen a decline of about 8 percent.
The war has also highlighted the importance of affordable drone interceptors, layered missile defense, persistent ISR (intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance), and the ability to manufacture large quantities of expendable munitions quickly. This is a lesson that the US and Israel are learning the hard way, as Iran has demonstrated its proficiency in asymmetric warfare.
In conclusion, the US-Israel war on Iran has had a complex and varied impact on the global economy. While some industries have thrived, others have suffered, and the long-term economic consequences are still unfolding.
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